THE REVENANT

Article by Marcus Siu

LOS ANGELES, FEBRUARY 27, 2016:  The balloting has closed last Tuesday, and the votes are now in at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, and only a few selected qualified auditors at Price Waterhouse knows who the winners are, but we can still predict with a reasonable outcome who will win the Academy Award on Sunday, even without the famous black briefcase that holds the ballots that eventually hits the red carpet and onto the stage at the Kodak Theatre where the ceremonies are held.

For at least a month after it opened in late November during the  Thanksgiving holiday weekend, “Spotlight” was the forerunner in the race for “Best Picture”.  However, that was well over three months ago.  Since then, “The Big Short” won the Producers Guild of America, and “The Revenant” took the Golden Globe.  Even though, “Spotlight” took the Best Ensemble at SAG, which is the Screen Actors Guild’s equivalent award for Best Picture, the momentum has changed.

Most likely, “The Revenant” will take the big statue at the Oscars tomorrow night, as it excelled in numerous categories that it’s rival nominees lacked, leading the pack with 12 nominations.  In addition, it will take Best Actor, Best Director, and Cinematography, and maybe another one or two technical awards.

For the Best Actor Category, Leonardo DiCaprio, has it locked after being nominated five times in the last twenty years, including his first back in 1994, at the age of 19, for “What’s Eating Gilbert Grape”, starring Johnny Depp as his older brother.  This year, he has taken all the major awards, including the Golden Globes, SAG, and just recently, the BAFTA (The British Oscars).

Like DiCaprio, Brie Larson, should be a shoo-in for her mesmerizing performance in “Room”, where she plays a captive mother for seven years, living with her five year old son, played superbly by Jacob Tremblay, who deserved to have been nominated himself.  If the Academy had seen her previous film, “Short Term 12”, which hardly anyone seen, she would have received equal acclaim and recognition just three years ago.  Cate Blanchett’s extraordinary portrayal of “Carol”, doesn’t stand a chance against Larson.

Jacob Tremblay and Brie Larson in “Room”. Credit: Photo by George Kraychyk, courtesy of A24.

Best Supporting Actress will most likely go to import Alicia Vikander for “The Danish Girl”, who has gotten much exposure over the last year.  The Swedish crossover actress last year made a few noteworthy films in the U.K., including “Ex Machina”, “The Man from U.N.C.L.E.”, and the “Testament of Youth”.  Her only other possible rival Kate Winslet, who also had a banner year with her nominated performance in “Steve Jobs”, and an Australian film, “The Dressmaker”, which hits the States next month.

The real fun belongs in the Best Supporting Actor category.  Historically, the winner of the Screen Actors Guild usually goes on to take the award, but this year’s winner, Idris Elba, a great actor of “diversity”, was not even nominated this year, even though he won for Best Supporting Actor at the BAFTA’s for “Beasts of No Nation”.  Out of the five Oscar nominees, all the others (Rylance, Bale, Ruffalo, Hardy) are equally deserving.

However, the iconic Sylvestor Stallone, who won the Golden Globe, looks like he will likely be the victor.  In addition, he may be able to help save the Academy’s “diversity” issue by giving a nice speech acknowledging that “Creed’s” Michael B. Jordan deserves to be in his place, instead of him.  That would be a true “Rocky” ending.  “Yo Rock!”….

Last year’s Best Director winner for “Birdman”, Alejandro G. Innaritu, will be only the third person to win back-to-back victories for a director.  Though, his film, “The Revenant”, like “Birdman”, is not everyone’s cup of tea.  However, no one can complain about his masterful visceral vision bringing us back to the days of fur traders and Native Americans back in the 1800’s. Not sure how he was able to pull it off in the extreme conditions when they were filming on location.  Hopefully, another win for diversity.

Regardless, if Tom McCarthy doesn’t get Best Director for “Spotlight”, he will definitely receive the Best Original Screenplay Oscar, along with his co-writer, Josh Singer, for their seamless screenplay.  Too bad there’s no award for “Best Ensemble Acting”, as it would win hands down against the other seven Best Picture nominees.  Same applies to Andy McKay and Charles Randolph, for their adapted screenplay for “The Big Short”, which should give them a consolation prize for them as well.

Look for Mad Max to win Art Direction, Costume, Makeup, and Sound Mixing.  Possibly Visual Effects, if Star Wars-The Force Awakens doesn’t win it.

Hungary’s “Son of Saul” should take Best Foreign Film.  A first for it’s country.   “Amy” should take Best Documentary.  Pixar’s “Inside Out” will take Best Animated Film.

The Documentary shorts and Live Action categories are tossups, though I have a personal affinity to Kosovo’s short live action film, “Shok” and Don Hertzfeldt’s Animated Short, “The World of Tomorrow”.  If I did a prediction for these categories, I would predict that I would predict wrong.