Frances McDormand as “Mildred Hayes” in THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI.

Article by Marcus Siu

It seems like Deja Vu all over again, with “The Shape of Water” landing 13 nominations this year, which was the same exact amount that “La La Land” landed a year ago, but failed to win Best Picture.  I predicted “La La Land” to win, and after a year was still trying to analyze why it lost.  My conclusion was because it was too much of a “fantasy” movie.  After all, it’s a movie about “dreamers”.

Historically, the Academy has never voted for a science fiction film for Best Picture, nor a “fantasy” film, with the exception for the “Lord of the Rings – Return of the King”.  You would think something like “2001: A Space Odyssey” could have won it for Best Picture, but it wasn’t even nominated that year.   The Academy tends now to vote for films that have a social message with serious subjects and issues rather than just pure spectacle and escapism, which is probably why “Moonlight” won Best Picture over “La La Land”.

Gone are the days when all you had to do was go by the most number of Academy Award nominations and you be able to predict your Best Picture winner.  For example, giant epic Hollywood movies blockbusters such as “Gone with the Wind”, “Lawrence of Arabia”, “Titanic”, etc, would receive ten to thirteen nominations each and end up getting the Best Picture Oscar 90% of the time, but this is no longer the case.

Now with the more “diversity” that recently got recruited as Academy members over the last several years,  it’s no longer about pure spectacle and studio production budgets that scores points and connects with the Academy.   It’s more about an original script that dares to be different from the ordinary, along with the passion, commitment and performances from all its cast members and direction.  It’s all about filmmakers who aren’t afraid to take studio risks to tell a story that needs to be told.

In fact, over the years, it seemed like movies that critics liked differed from what the Academy’s Best Picture choices were.  They were never the same.  Critics were always more into story driven dialogue films, whereas the Academy was more into production driven ones.  However, the gap has become smaller and smaller, as many of these small indie budget films with great scripts and casts are winning the Oscar for movies such as “Spotlight”, “Moonlight”, “The Artist” or even “Birdman”.  These films were made because of the filmmakers believed in them, even if the studio didn’t.  These movies resonated with the Academy, so it was no longer required to have a big studio budget to win the Best Picture Oscar.

Director/Writer/Producer Guillermo del Toro on the set of THE SHAPE OF WATER. Photo by Kerry Hayes. © 2017 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation All Rights Reserved

Look for “Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri” to edge out “The Shape of Water”. “Billboards” has everything going for it including a solid supporting cast that couldn’t have been better, and a witty screenplay by one of the greatest playwrights in the world, Martin McDonagh, with a social message that the Academy finds mandatory for “Best Picture” material.

“The Shape of Water”, with its 13 Oscar nominations would normally have been the indicator to win Best Picture, especially when the runner up film “Dunkirk” had “only” eight nods.   I still don’t believe the Academy will vote for a movie about a romance between a mute woman and a fish man, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it won.  My theory still stands, academy voters tend to vote for human dramas about real people, instead of fantasy films. Fantasy films just don’t seem to survive for the Academy.  It’s like a fish out of water.

Another possible upset for the Best Picture trophy is “Get Out”, which is definitely a timely social-political film about racism that surprised many when its nominations were announced.  However, the movie is too much of a psychological horror story that doesn’t fit the bill for a Best Picture winner, either.   It has to be on the top of the heap for pulling an upset if “Three Billboards” or “The Shape of Water” doesn’t win, with Jordan Peele, getting a Best Director nomination, along with his lead actor, Daniel Kaluuya, as well as a Best Original Screenplay.

Sally Hawkins and Doug Jones in the film THE SHAPE OF WATER. Photo by Kerry Hayes. © 2017 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation All Rights Reserved

(From L-R) Director/Writer/Producer Guillermo del Toro, Octavia Spencer and Sally Hawkins, on the set of THE SHAPE OF WATER. Photo by Sophie Giraud. © 2017 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation All Rights Reserved

Historically, the movie that gets Best Picture gets the Best Director Oscar, as well, but this may not the case this year, if “Three Billboards” gets Best Picture, since its director wasn’t even nominated.  This time the Oscar will most likely go to director, Guillermo del Toro for “The Shape of Water”.  He has already taken the DGA and BAFTA awards, so he should take home the Best Director Oscar hands down.

Gary Oldman should be a shoo-in to win Best Actor for playing Winston Churchill in “The Darkest Hour”.  He deserves it, not because he had to sit through four hours of makeup every day, but because he stayed in it all the time on set.  In addition, his performance was way beyond extraordinary.  Over the years he has been a reliable chameleon, usually unrecognizable, and still continued to put up great performances role after role.  However, this is the performance may be the one that he will be remembered as his crowning achievement and his the best ever.

“Three Billboards” will probably take home statuettes for Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell, as they have seemed to have swept all the other major awards in this dramedy.   Like Oldman, it’s great to see Rockwell finally being recognized and paying his dues as a character actor, as well.  Let’s see if he will be getting more “leading” roles in the future after he wins his trophy.

Sam Rockwell and Frances McDormand in the film THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI. Photo by Merrick Morton. © 2017 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation All Rights Reserved

Look for Allison Janney to take the Supporting Actress Oscar as Tonya Harding’s mother in “I, Tonya”, as the character she plays was written directly for her.  Writer Steven Rogers, a long-time friend of Janney, wrote the role of LaVona Golden with her in mind.  Janney also had to find the right bird to perch on her shoulder, as she is not a “bird” person.  She nailed the performance and has taken every single major award.

LaVona Golden (Allison-Janney) and her pet bird in I, TONYA, courtesy of NEON

For Best Original Screenplay, it’s between “Billboards”, Martin McDonagh and “Lady Bird’s” Greta Gerwig.  The Academy will most likely recognize Greta Gerwig since she was also nominated for Best Director for “Lady Bird”, in addition to getting Oscar nods for her lead actors, Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf.

James Ivory should take Best Adapted Screenplay for “Call Me By Your Name”, as there really is no serious competition, as “Mudbound” or “Molly’s Game”, is a distant second and third.   If he receives the awards, he will be the oldest Oscar recipient at 89, unless Agnes Varda gets the “Best Documentary” the same night.

Look for Pixar’s “Coco” to win another two Oscars and win Best Animated film, along with its Best Original Song “Remember Me”.  The other competition is the song, “This is Me”, from “The Greatest Showman” which was a big commercial hit on the radio that can beat Coco, but “Remember Me” was very integral to the movie and not merely an end credit song.

Agnès Varda (left) and JR (right) in Faces Places directed by Agnès Varda and JR. Photo courtesy of Cohen Media Group

In the Documentary category, all the films have equally powerful subjects. It’s just Varda’s buddy-buddy, “Faces Places” stand out because it is delightful to watch, though difficult to categorize as your traditional documentary.   Though, “Icarus”, a film about Russian doping on their Olympic athletes and “The Last Men in Aleppo” from Syria, and Steve James’ “Abacus” really caught my attention and definitely deserve the golden statuette, as well.

In the animated shorts categories, it would be hard to not want to see your favorite local hometown L.A. Laker, Kobe Bryant, accept a speech for “Dear Basketball”.  It’s a little unfair for the other nominees, since the Academy from would want to reward their sports town hero a nice little retirement gift as a token of appreciation.  To be fair, it is quite a terrific short film with John Williams providing the musical score.  It should be a slam dunk for the film, but I hope to see “Garden Party” frogs take the Oscar.

Saoirse Ronan and Greta Gerwig on the set of LADY BIRD

In the Live Action shorts, the Australian light-hearted comedy gets the edge, as it is the only one that we can laugh at.  The other shorts are heart-wrenching dramas about racial and social situations regarding death and violence, with the exception of “The Silent Child”, which gets my vote as a runner-up.  They are all solid, but after watching them, you need a sense of relief.

AND THE REST OF THEM:

1. Best Picture: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Actor in a Leading Role: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
3. Actress in a Leading Role: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Actor in a Supporting Role: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Actress in a Supporting Role: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
6. Directing: The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro –
7. Adapted Screenplay: Call Me by Your Name –  James Ivory
8. Writing (Original Screenplay) – Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig
9. Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 – Roger A. Deakins
10. Costume Design: Phantom Thread – Mark Bridges
11. Sound Mixing – Baby Driver – Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
12. Film Editing: Dunkirk – Lee Smith
13. Sound Editing: Dunkirk – Richard King and Alex Gibson
14. Visual Effects: War For The Planet of the Apes – Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist
15. Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour – Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick
16. Music (Original Song) – Coco – Remember Me
17. Music (Original Score) – The Shape of Water – Alexandre Desplat
18. Short Film (Animated) – Dear Basketball
19. Short Film (Live Action) – The Eleven O’Clock
20. Documentary Short Subject: Heroin(e)
21. Documentary Feature: Faces, Places
22. Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman – Chile
23. Animated Feature Film: Coco
24. Production Design: The Shape of Water